Definition
Review sequences of losing closed trades.
Formula. Longest consecutive sequence of negative net closed-trade results, ordered by close time and then trade ID. A win or break-even trade resets the sequence.
Expected longest losing run by chance
| Win rate | Over 100 trades | Over 500 trades |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | about 5 in a row | about 7 in a row |
| 50% | about 7 in a row | about 9 in a row |
| 35% | about 10 in a row | about 14 in a row |
How it goes wrong
- Treating an ordinary streak as a signal
- At a 35% win rate, ten consecutive losses is an expected event, not a broken strategy. Size your risk so that the expected streak is survivable and the question stops being urgent.
- Ignoring what the streak did to your sizing
- The damage is usually not the streak; it is the position size increase that followed it. The journal entries during a streak are the most valuable ones you will ever write.
Questions
How is a streak counted?
The longest consecutive sequence of negative net closed-trade results, ordered by close. A win or a break-even trade resets the sequence.